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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still